Promotional Method

Promotion mechanisms for the PGA TOUR ( see also www.pga.com ) results from a probit model indicate that players promoted through the Nationwide Tour are more likely to achieve full exempt status on the PGA TOUR than if promotion came through Q-school once skill and place are controlled for. But promotion through the Nationwide Tour is not sufficient for a player to have the greatest chance for success in the promotion year. A few conclusions follow. First, because cost is expected to be higher for players trying to get promoted through play on the Nationwide Tour, the increased probability of success points to a trade-off facing players seeking promotion to the PGA TOUR. Q-school can serve as a cost-effective way to seek promotion when players have talent but face limited resources with which to pursue promotion. The PGA TOUR should probably not eliminate Q-school as a promotion mechanism, as those finishing out of the top 10 in the Nationwide Tour money list do not appear to exhibit any better chance of achieving success on the PGA TOUR than if they had finished in the top 40 in Q-school.

The second implication is that promotion mechanisms in individual sports leagues such as the PGA TOUR may be viewed as being more than just a means for screening talent to allow the best athletes to compete at the highest level. By linking the Nationwide Tour to the PGA TOUR in this manner, revenues from the Nationwide Tour can become larger with the prospect of promotion (see Noll 2002). The optimal number of promotions the PGA TOUR gives to top earners on the Nationwide Tour to ensure maximum revenues likely differs from the mix of promotions that will maximize the number of promoted players receiving full exempt status. This leaves fewer possibilities for promotion through Q-school for those players with limited resources forced to compete on the Nationwide Tour to achieve a promotion.

Some other recommendations follow. If promoting a relatively large number of players to the PGA TOUR is the goal and if those promoted are to be the best players available, Q-school as the only promotion mechanism is cost effective. But if promoting a relatively small number of the best available players to the PGA TOUR is the goal, the Nationwide Tour as the only promotion mechanism seems to be required. Of course, the PGA TOUR has goals that reach beyond just promoting players and includes an integrated marketing scheme, so these recommendations are limited.

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